Senator Maurice Hayes, Chairman, The Ireland Funds Advisory Committee writes about the state of the Peace Process

The year's end brings with it yet another hiatus in the Northern Ireland Peace Process.

This involves the suspension of the Assembly and Executive set up under the Good Friday Agreement by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Dr. John Reid M.P.

Dr. Reid was a guest at the June Conference and spoke warmly of the work of The Funds.

Dr. Reid was then himself transferred from the Northern Ireland Office to become Chairman of the Labour Party as a result of Cabinet changes in London. He has been replaced by Paul Murphy, the Secretary of State for Wales who has a good track record in having been Minister of State assisting Mo Mowlem, and having been engaged in the tortuous inter-party negotiations which preceded the Good Friday Agreement. He is well thought of by local parties, and has the reputation of being a good listener and a patient negotiator.

The reasons for the suspension are complex and multi-lateral. Although each side blames the other, the reality is that all share some responsibility. Sinn Féin argue that the British Government should have insisted on keeping the institutions going, despite unionist reluctance. Unionists claim that they could not continue in office with Sinn Féin without IRA disbandment, and argue that the British Government should simply have declared Sinn Féin ineligible, and kept the Executive in being. The SDLP were not willing to vote for the exclusion of Sinn Féin, and could not politically have survived the attempt to carry on government without them.

While there are some grounds for the argument that David Trimble was trying to avoid being outbid by the hardline opponents of the Agreement in his own party, there is no doubt from the opinion polls that Unionist support for the Agreement has been steadily draining away, from 55% in 1998 to less than 30%. Since the idea of powersharing hypothesises Unionist involvement and since the purpose of the process is to draw republicans into the political process through Sinn Féin, the arrangements can logically not be maintained in the absence of either.

Unionist faith in the process is vital (as is republican commitment to it) and this has been badly damaged by an alleged IRA involvement in continuing militaristic activities in Colombia (where there is a trial in progress) at Castlereagh (where a break-in to police headquarters is being investigated) and at Stormont (where there are allegations of spying and intelligence gathering).

It is important to note, as the two governments have stressed, that although the Assembly has been suspended, the Good Friday Agreement still stands. The administrative functions of the Executive are being exercised by the British Government through the Secretary of State and a strengthened team of junior ministers, and with input from the Irish Government through the British / Irish Governmental Council (itself a child of the Agreement). That Council too is pressing on with implementing other aspects of the Agreement involving the protection of human rights, reform of policing, reform of the criminal justice system and North / South bodies.

Tony Blair in a major speech, reaffirmed his commitment to the Agreement, and said there was no alternative. He called on the IRA to disband - but he also recognized the needs of nationalism and promised full implementation if there was disbandment. Gerry Adams replied in a thoughtful and nuanced speech, which was welcomed by David Trimble as a positive contribution, and by the Taoiseach.

Most people recognize that IRA disbandment is not on the cards, certainly not in the short term, and most certainly not in response to British or Unionist demands. What is needed is a declaration, a demonstration which will satisfy unionists that the war is over and will not be renewed. Gerry Adams has said that he could contemplate a future without the IRA if the Agreement was implemented in full by all parties, and that Sinn Féin could join the Policing Board of the recommendations of the Patten Commission were implemented.

The parties of the British and Irish Governments now seem to be bidding for a resolution which will see 'completion' (which is the current buzz-word) of the Agreement and which will tie up all the loose ends before the Assembly Elections in May.

The Irish Government proposes to recall the National Forum on Peace and Reconciliation, and in the past few days there appears to be a renewed sense of purpose in the Northern Ireland parties as the reality of Suspension sinks in.

One can only wish them well.

This article first appeared in Connections Winter 2003 issue